Venezuela vs. Guyana and International Relations: Maybe oil shouldn't be that important
You might want to take a shot every time you read the term international law.
Did you know that Venezuela plans to invade Guyana? I bet you didn't know that. If we are being honest, a lot of people aren’t aware of this. But here is the story. On December 3rd 2023, President Nicholas Maduro's government plans to hold a national referendum that consists of five (5) questions that pose a threat to Guyana:
Do you agree to reject by all means in accordance with the law the line fraudulently imposed by the Paris Arbitration Award of 1899 that seeks to deprive us of our Guayana Esequiba?
Do you support the 1966 Geneva Agreement as the only valid legal instrument to reach a practical and satisfactory solution for Venezuela and Guyana regarding the controversy over the territory of Guayana Esequiba?
Do you agree with Venezuela’s historical position of not recognizing the jurisdiction of the International Court of Justice to resolve the territorial controversy over Guayana Esequiba?
Do you agree to oppose by all means in accordance with the law Guyana’s claim to unilaterally dispose of a sea pending delimitation illegally and in violation of international law?
Do you agree with the creation of the Guayana Esequiba state and the development of an accelerated plan for the comprehensive care of the current and future population of that territory that includes, among others, the granting of citizenship and Venezuelan identity card in accordance with the Geneva Agreement and international law, consequently incorporating said state on the map of Venezuelan territory?
A simple perusal of these questions will inform you that they aren't objective and are crafted to produce one result - the annexation of the Essequibo region in Guyana. It is important for us to not only be aware of the situation but how it would impact the region. In this article, we will look at the historical context of the dispute, how the study of International Relations interprets this situation, international and regional responses, and what's next.
The History of the Border Dispute
The border dispute isn't a new conflict that has plagued the relations between Guyana and Venezuela. This stems back to the seventeenth century when British Guiana and Venezuela finally agreed on the modern-day borders with the Arbitral Award of 1899. The Award states that the entire mouth of the Orinoco River belonged to Venezuela and the highly contested Essequibo region belonged to British Guiana.
The following excerpt from Introductory Note to Arbitral Award of Oct. 3, 1899 (GUY. V. VENEZ) by Brendan Plant gives a more thorough breakdown on the historical happenings of the dispute.
…in 1944, a letter written by a member of the legal team that had represented Venezuela in the arbitral proceedings was published posthumously in the American Journal of International Law.2 This letter alleged impropriety on the part of the tribunal, and claimed that the Award was the result of a secret deal struck by certain members of the tribunal. In1962,Venezuela announced that it considered the1899 Award to be null and void, as it claimed that the decision was not the result of a fair legal process, but rather the outcome of a covert political deal. After talks between Venezuela and the United Kingdom, in1966 the two states concluded the Agreement to Resolve the Controversy betweenVenezuela and the United Kingdom of Great Britain Northern Ireland over the frontier between Venezuela and British Guiana (the Geneva Agreement).3 In 1966, Guyana also became a party to the agreement, having attained independence from the United Kingdom. Under the Geneva Agreement, the parties established a mechanism to settle the controversy between them.This mechanism comprised three distinct stages: first, the establishment of a Mixed Commission; failing that, the use of one of the means of peaceful settlement set out in Article 33 of the UN Charter as chosen by the parties themselves; and finally, if the parties did not agree on a means of settlement, the referral of that decision to the Secretary-General who, according to the terms of Article IV (2) of the Geneva Agreement, could choose other means“ until the controversy has been resolved or until all the means of peaceful settlement ... have been exhausted.” After the first two stages of the agreed process yielded no solution, the parties referred the decision on the means of settlement to the Secretary-General in 1983.The parties met over the course of the next six years to discuss possible solutions, until in1990 then Secretary-General Javier Pérez de Cuéllar chose the good offices process as the appropriate means to seek a settlement. The good offices process operated until 2014, when Guyana asked the Secretary-General, Ban Ki-moon, to choose a means that would bring definitive end to the controversy. In 2015, the Secretary-General informed parties that he intended to refer the controversy to the ICJ for a final and binding decision unless the parties found a practical solution before the end of his tenure, and he extended good offices for another year. When António Guterres took office as Secretary-General, he extended the good offices process for one more year, before announcing on January 30,2018 that, because significant progress had not been made, he had chosen the ICJ as the means to settle the controversy. (Plant, 2021).
I encourage you to read the full article as it brings great insight into the International Court of Justice ruling in 2021 and how it favors Guyana. With the latest ruling that dropped on December 1st, 2023, stating that Venezuela must refrain from taking any action which would modify that situation that currently prevails."
Understanding this from an International Relations Perspective
International Relations provides two theories that can explain the current explanation. Realism - one of the original political science schools of thought - paints the picture of how Maduro does foreign relations. Alan James talks about how Realism is based on three assumptions:
That the state is the most important international actor,
that there is a sharp distinction between domestic and international politics, in the sense that there is something about politics between states which makes it very different in kind from politics which occurs within states, and
that international relations is the struggle for power and peace.
The second theory we are going to look at is the Diversionary War Theory. Diversionary War Theory is when policymakers tend to use diversionary measures (such as waging war) in response to internal difficulties. States would instigate international conflict to do the following:
Distract the attention of the public from social, political, or economic issues.
Initiate the rally round the flag effect which is an upsurge in public support for political leaders when a state is engaged in international conflict.
Shift blame to an external scapegoat, and
Demonstrate the government's competence in foreign policy.
Venezuela's entire approach to this situation fits the realist argument and the diversionary war theory. James' third point on realist views that international relations are the struggle for power and peace puts into perspective Venezuela's need for having that region. Power. With the recent discovery of oil in 2021, the push to acquire the Essequibo area is needed as we all know that in this globalized world, oil = power. We've seen many people displaced and wars waged for oil and other valuable minerals and Venezuela is willing to do such once again. But how can one try to gain such power on the international scale, when there is a clear sense of domestic problems and turmoil? Here is where the Diversionary War Theory comes into play. Because of the consistent domestic issues in Venezuela - such as the 2017 anti-Maduro protests and repression; the severe food shortages in 2018; the nationwide power outages in 2019, and long-gas station lines in 2020 - there is a major need for the rehabilitation of Maduro amongst the people. The inflation of the currency is so bad that many Venezuelans turned to gold farming on the popular game RuneScape OSRS in order to make enough money to flee and survive. In a letter, Antigua and Barbuda's Ambassador to the United States and the Organisation of American States (OAS), Sir Ronald Sanders, explained that for over 60 years, Venezuelans from childhood to adulthood are trained to believe that the Essequibo region of Guyana belongs to Venezuela. If this indoctrination is true, the five questions slated for the December 3rd referendum prompt the rally round the flag effect. Many Venezuelans have consistently pushed for the region and they see the need to support their government in finally getting what is theirs. This creates a new conflict for citizens to engage in and forget about their day-to-day domestic issues because it encroaches on their national pride.
With the lack of objectivity in the questions and the known feelings among Venezuelans, the referendum will certainly pass. The question is, how will the regional and international community react to this?
Regional and International Response.
In October, CARICOM put out an official statement noting that two of the questions approved to be posed in the Referendum, if answered in the affirmative, would authorise the government of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela to embark on the annexation of territory, which constitutes part of the Cooperative Republic of Guyana, and to create a state within Venezuela known as Guyana Essequibo. CARICOM reaffirms that international law strictly prohibits the government of one State from unilaterally seizing, annexing, or incorporating the territory of another state. An affirmative vote as aforesaid opens the door to the possible violation of this fundamental tenet of international law.
CARICOM's role in this dispute might seem insignificant to some but how they navigate their relations with Venezuela and their support of Guyana (one of their fifteen members), will truly be a test of time on how Caribbean governments view foreign relations. It is no secret that the majority of the Caribbean countries have been vocal in their support for Venezuela and calling out the United States to remove sanctions on Venezuela - even signing a bilateral relationship with the US to address these sanctions. This ties into Venezuelan oil. Many Caribbean leaders are seeking discounted oil from Venezuela, stating they’ve been forced to buy more expensive petroleum elsewhere as they struggle with tight budgets. This is an interesting claim, as many are also on record that they would purchase the newly found oil from Guyana as well. But with this 'complicated' relationship, how has CARICOM responded to Venezuela's claim to the Essequibo region?
In July 2023, the leaders issued a communique reiterating the regional body's support for Guyana's sovereignty and territorial integrity, as Venezuela persists with its claim for the Essequibo region.
In September, CARICOM responded to Venezuela's claim that it would "apply all the necessary measures" to prevent the operations licensed by Guyana in its waters, as a threat of the use of force contrary to international law. It is also not keeping with the long-standing position of the Latin American and Caribbean countries that our Region must remain a Zone of Peace.
In October, CARICOM stated the following: earnestly hopes that Venezuela is not raising the prospect of using force or military means to get its own way in this controversy over territory. After all, it has been the long-standing position of Latin American and Caribbean countries, including Venezuela, that our region must remain a zone of peace. Meanwhile, CARICOM insists that the Referendum proposed by Venezuela has no validity, bearing, or standing in international law in relation to this controversy; the Referendum is a purely domestic construct, but its summary effect is likely to undermine peace, tranquility, security, and more, in our region. CARICOM reiterates its support for the judicial process and expresses the hope that Venezuela will engage fully in that process before the International Court of Justice which has determined that it has the jurisdiction in the case brought before it to determine the validity of the 1899 Arbitral Award which Venezuela questions. The Court’s final decision will ensure a resolution that is peaceful, equitable and in accordance with international law.
PM Mia Mottley and PM Ralph Gonsalves (St. Vincent & the Grenadines) are so far the only two Prime Ministers that have gone on record to state that their countries are individually backing Guyana, that its borders are inviolable, and the ICJ must be used to settle the territorial controversy with Venezuela. This statement comes at an irony as PM Mottley is also on record stating “CARICOM has spoken, but equally we know that Venezuela has been a good sister country to us and we pray that therefore that persons will allow maturity to attend all of their actions and conversations."
This loaded statement does nothing but confirm that Barbados would not jeopardize a potential economic relationship with Venezuela, even if it means the autonomy of its sister country would be compromised.
While the Caribbean and its leaders are busy with uncertainty and long-winded statements, they've been committed to military support from members of the international community. Brazil has increased its northern border military presence. The United States Military and the Guyana Defense Force have been working together to prepare for any Venezuelan military aggression. While I have my reservations about the US involvement (as all US military involvement is simply for economic and power gain), it is telling that these major actors in the international community can at least help ( the bare minimum) while our region consistently sends out statements and gives support within the courts.
What’s next?
The International Court of Justice made their ruling. It told Venezuela that they must refrain from taking any action which would modify that situation that currently prevails in the Essequibo region. The court did not specifically ban them from holding the referendum.
So yeah, the referendum is going to happen. There've been calls from leaders in Guyana for an emergency meeting of CARICOM to quickly assess the situation. However, the problem doesn't truly concern the leaders as they want us to believe it does. Despite being the home of the Secretariat, Guyana is that big cousin that has always been seen as the outside child in the family. You speak about them, you might speak to them, ask them for favors when they come around, but you don't really and truly care about them. Once again, Guyana is in a situation where they need to figure out how to defend their own and defend it now.
Venezuela has technically declared war. It is going to change the foreign relations within the region for a very long time. How we react to it is going to dictate the future of the Caribbean and our relationship with Latin America. But most importantly, our relationship with Guyana.
I think we all need a drink right now.
Sources:
Al Jazeera. (2023, December 1). Un’s top court bars Venezuela from action in Guyana border dispute. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/1/uns-top-court-bars-venezuela-from-action-in-guyana-border-dispute
Cano, R. G. (2023, October 14). Evolving crisis fuels anxiety among Venezuelans who want a better economy but see worsening woes. AP News. https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-crisis-migrants-maduro-food-elections-afabb9dee444128c5ec4593a51e78896
Caricom assures Guyana of Regional Organisation’s support in border dispute with Venezuela. The Habari Network. (n.d.). https://www.thehabarinetwork.com/caricom-assures-guyana-of-regional-organisations-support-in-border-dispute-with-venezuela
Chabrol, D. (2023a, October 25). Caricom says Venezuela’s referendum has no bearing on international law. Demerara Waves Online News- Guyana. https://demerarawaves.com/2023/10/25/caricom-says-venezuelas-referendum-has-no-bearing-on-international-law/
Chabrol, D. (2023b, November 28). US, Guyana Defence Forces Discus Readiness for Security threats. Demerara Waves Online News- Guyana. https://demerarawaves.com/2023/11/28/us-guyana-defence-forces-discus-readiness-for-security-threats/
Independent Digital News and Media. (2023, July 7). Caribbean leaders seeking discounted oil criticize US sanctions against Venezuela. The Independent. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/caribbean-ap-venezuela-people-guyana-b2371367.html
James, A. (1989). The realism of realism: The State and the study of international relations. Review of International Studies, 15(3), 215–229. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0260210500112847
News Source Guyana. (2023, October 31). Barbados prime minister calls on Guyana and Venezuela to ensure region remains zone of peace. https://newssourcegy.com/caribbean-international/barbados-prime-minister-calls-on-guyana-and-venezuela-to-ensure-region-remains-zone-of-peace/
OilNOW. (2022, July 8). Caribbean leaders unwavering in support of Guyana’s sovereignty. https://oilnow.gy/featured/caribbean-leaders-unwavering-in-support-of-guyanas-sovereignty/
Ombler, M. (2020, May 27). How RuneScape is helping Venezuelans survive. Polygon. https://www.polygon.com/features/2020/5/27/21265613/runescape-is-helping-venezuelans-survive
Plant, B. (2021, December 16). Arbitral award of Oct. 3, 1899 (guy. V. Venez.) (decision on jurisdiction) (I.C.J.): International Legal Materials. Cambridge Core. https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/international-legal-materials/article/abs/arbitral-award-of-oct-3-1899-guy-v-venez-decision-on-jurisdiction-icj/42C7BEC2EE959A9C684C0E60646856E4
Statement by the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) on the Guyana-Venezuela ... (n.d.-a). https://caricom.org/statement-by-the-caribbean-community-caricom-on-the-guyana-venezuela-border-controversy/
Statement by the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) on the Guyana-Venezuela ... (n.d.-b). https://caricom.org/statement-by-the-caribbean-community-caricom-on-the-guyana-venezuela-border-controversy/
Thomson Reuters. (2023, November 29). Brazil increases northern border military presence amid Venezuela-Guyana spat -ministry. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-increases-northern-border-military-presence-amid-venezuela-guyana-spat-2023-11-29/
Venezuela’s dangerous referendum: Threatening peace and international law. caribbeannewsglobal. (2023, October 26). https://caribbeannewsglobal.com/venezuelas-dangerous-referendum-threatening-peace-and-international-law/?amp=1